The market in the metals industry is constantly on the move - and so are raw material prices. This report, which is published monthly by IKB Deutsche Industriebank, focuses on aluminum and zinc and highlights the most important developments in June 2022.

In the first quarter of 2022, zinc mine production increased by 2%. This was mainly due to production increases at some mines, including in Asia and America. A significant increase in mine production of around 4°% is seen for 2021. In contrast, refining production decreased by 1.5% in Q1 2022. Consumption expanded by 1.4% year-on-year by the end of March 2022 and is expected to increase by around 1.6% to just over 14.3 million tons for the full year. The increase in consumption is mainly taking place in Asia and the Americas, while this is expected to fall in Europe as a result of the war. Zinc will continue to receive impetus from galvanized sheet and zinc chemicals.

Zinc inventories on the LME at the end of May 2022 were just under 85,000 t, while those on the SHFE increased slightly to 171,000 t: This was due to the partial lockdown as a result of the Corona pandemic, which also impacted construction activity. The stocks correspond to around 6.5 days' consumption. However, these could fall further in 2022.

Trend: We forecast the zinc price to move around US$4,100/t by the end of Q3 2022, with a fluctuation band of ±US$700